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Death sentences are for intimidation, but the next uprising is inevitable

A political analyst in Tehran who closely monitors the current state of society says the Islamic Republic thinks it can prevent the next wave of protests with the death penalty. But despite this intimidation, the next uprising is certain. The confirmation of the death penalty for three detainees during last November's protests, the execution of two Kurdish political prisoners in Urmia, and the death sentences on the way are deeply troubling to the public. The spread of this news, and especially its announcement in the press conference of Gholam Hossein Ismaili, the spokesman of the Judiciary on Tuesday, July 15, will be followed by a wave of protests and lawsuits. The demonstrations forced Fars News Agency to reiterate what the head of the judiciary had said at the previous day's meeting on Wednesday, July 16, and to try to justify the death sentences for Amir Hossein Moradi, Saeed Tamjidi, and Mohammad Rajabi. Fars News wrote following the announcement of the death penalty for three November protesters by the Supreme Court; the dissident press made headlines. Those headlines were "The death sentence of three November protesters was sent to the prosecutor's office after confirmation" and "The death sentence of three November protesters has been confirmed." They republished, and in a way, sought to insinuate that these people were sentenced to death for merely protesting their living conditions. Fars News Agency also attributed the efforts of human rights organizations such as Amnesty International to the "Cyber Unit of the Hypocrites" and wrote: In next to no time, the Hashtag "do not execute" became the first twitter trend in the world. Many people who were unaware of the details of the criminal actions of these convicts joined this mysterious process inadvertently, and the cyberspace was full of hashtags "do not execute."

The government is counting on keeping the people silent

The judiciary has resorted to the harshest punishments, despite repeated requests from Iranian activists, the international community and international organizations. In an interview with Mohammad Mohebbi, a political analyst from Tehran, Deutsche Welle Farsi asked the reason for the significant increase in violence against Iranian civil society and the issuance of death sentences. The Iranian analyst says the Islamic Republic's intentions of mass executions are intimidating because the economic situation in Iran, which has become so critical due to both sanctions and government inefficiency and the spread of the Corona, has put society on the brink of explosion. "People are furious," he said. The only reason behind apparent silence in society, in addition to the inherent conservatism and accountability that Iranians have," is concern about Corona." The Islamic Republic's calculation in issuing death sentences is to be able to prevent even the initial spark of subsequent protests. Because a spark this time will make the intensity of demonstrations much higher than those of winter 2017 and November 2019. In his view, this policy can only postpone the start of protests for a few weeks or months. Mohammad Mohebbi points to his extensive contacts with other observers and social experts and says they all believe that despite attempts to coerce, a widespread uprising in Iran is assured.

There will be both future uprisings and broader repression

Mohammad Mohebbi is concerned about the ruthless and violent repression of the next uprising. He says he hopes the Islamic Republic will at least reduce the severity of repression and intimidation by encouraging people to run in next year's presidential election. At the same time, he does not have much hope that this time the level of participation of the people and the legitimacy of the system among them will be essential for the government. For this reason, he emphasizes that he hopes that political activists and analysts will look for a way that can restrain the Islamic Republic in its policy of repression and cause less harm to the people.

About the Author

Mahtab is an Iranian Social activist determined to bring a change in society. She is a strong voice for women in Iran.